Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $87,700 on Wednesday, holding in a tight range after sliding more than 36% from its early-October record of $126,199.
The sideways movement comes as flows into spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) remain uneven and as analysts warn that price action may stay muted this week, with US markets set to close for the Thanksgiving holiday.
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Institutional flows signal hesitation
Trading data this week shows no clear direction from large investors. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have posted alternating inflows and outflows, underscoring the cautious mood.
According to SoSoValue, ETFs recorded $128.64 million in inflows on Tuesday, following $151.08 million a day earlier. The shifting appetite highlights uncertainty among institutions that typically guide broader market sentiment.
On Wednesday, Strategy said on its X account that even if Bitcoin were to fall back to its average cost basis of $74,000, the company’s holdings would still exceed its convertible debt obligations by 5.9 times a measure it calls its “BTC Rating.”
The firm added that at a price level of $25,000, the coverage ratio would still stand at two times, suggesting the company remains well protected even under steep drawdown scenarios.
BTC opened the week with a modest rebound after logging its fourth straight weekly loss, the longest negative run since the 2022–2024 downturn.
The asset has now registered a peak-to-trough decline of 36.24% from its all-time high on October 6.
Analysts expect consolidation
A K33 Research report released Tuesday noted that the shortened US trading week could create space for consolidation.
With Thanksgiving keeping markets shut on Thursday and partially closed on Friday, analysts say volatility may remain subdued.
The report also pointed to Bitcoin’s recent performance relative to equity markets. BTC has lagged behind the Nasdaq, tracked through the Invesco QQQ ETF, on 21 of the past 30 trading days about 70% of the time.
K33 said this is the first instance since July 2024 in which Bitcoin’s rolling underperformance against the index has exceeded the 70% threshold.
Analysts identified six similar periods of persistent underperformance since 2020 July 2020, December 2021, June 2022, January 2024, and July 2024.
The three most recent stretches each coincided with a clear negative narrative for the crypto sector: Mt. Gox and German government-linked selling in July 2024, heavy Grayscale outflows in January 2024, and industry-wide contagion in June 2022.
“Correlations trended lower in these environments,” the analyst noted.
Deleveraging and shifting correlations
The latest downturn stems from the October 10 deleveraging event, but it has also been defined by rising correlations between BTC and major equity indices.
Bitcoin has been tracking equity moves closely, yet with deeper losses on down days and weaker recoveries on up days. K33 said this pattern reflects persistent relative selling pressure and broad risk aversion across financial markets.
BTC’s valuation relative to the QQQ index has now dropped to 143, the lowest reading since November 5. This means all gains in relative strength seen after the US presidential election have been erased.
According to analysts, today’s market participants are notably different from those active during the 2021 cycle or the first-quarter 2024 rally.
“We view the current relative pricing of BTC to other risk assets as a significant disconnect from its underlying fundamentals and consider BTC a strong relative buy at current levels for any long-term-focused investor,” the report concluded.
Bitcoin found support near the key $80,000 level on Friday before staging a mild weekend rebound and finishing above $88,300 on Monday. By Wednesday, the cryptocurrency was trading around $87,700, holding steady in a tight range.
Analysts say that if the recovery continues, Bitcoin could push toward the next major resistance level at $90,000.
Technical indicators are beginning to show early signs of easing selling pressure. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 32 after dropping below the oversold mark last week, hinting that the recent downward momentum may be slowing.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the same timeframe also shows shrinking red histogram bars, with the MACD line nearing a potential crossover above the signal line.
However, a renewed move lower would bring the downside target back to the psychological $80,000 area, which remains the next major support zone.
Ethereum Market Sentiment Strengthens as US Buyers Return
Ethereum is showing signs of steady improvement in the US market sentiment over the past several days.
Data from CryptoQuant indicates that the Coinbase Premium Index, a key gauge of US investor appetite, climbed from -0.12 last Thursday to -0.02 on Monday.
The metric remains in negative territory, yet the slight increase signals that US-based buyers are now valuing ETH more favorably than they did a week earlier.
Institutional activity in the US has also begun to pick up, reflected in renewed inflows into US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to SoSoValue.
The products drew $96.67 million in net inflows on Monday, securing a second straight day of positive flows after eight consecutive days of outflows.
Whale wallets push prices above their cost basis
Improving sentiment is also visible among large holders with 10,000 to 100,000 ETH, many of whom stepped up accumulation after Ethereum’s price dropped below their average cost basis.
These wallets added roughly 440,000 ETH over the past week, a move interpreted by analysts as an attempt to guide prices back above their break-even levels.
By contrast, mid-sized wallets holding 1,000–10,000 ETH and 100–1,000 ETH increased distribution as prices moved closer to their cost basis.
These groups sold about 100,000 ETH and 120,000 ETH, respectively, over the same period.
Meanwhile, ETH futures trading has maintained a cautious tone. CoinGlass data shows net outflows of $4.31 billion over the past seven days. Still, traders have shown a slight return of interest this week, with $735.46 million in inflows recorded over the last three days.
The modest improvement in US sentiment has coincided with a sharp rise in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate reduction at the December meeting rose from around 30% last Thursday to more than 80% by Tuesday.
Even so, it remains uncertain whether Ethereum has reached a clear bottom, as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to cloud broader market conditions.
Several analysts maintain that a stronger macro backdrop will be needed before digital assets can mount a sustained recovery.
Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH struggles for direction after reclaiming $2,850
Ethereum recorded $80.8 million in futures liquidations over the past 24 hours, driven largely by $51.3 million in short liquidations, Coinglass data shows.
ETH is now attempting to establish direction near the key $3,000 psychological level after reclaiming the $2,850 support area.
A move above resistance at around $3,100, just below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) could open a path toward testing the upper boundary of the descending price channel.
On the downside, losing the $2,850 level could send ETH toward the channel’s lower boundary, where further support may emerge.
Momentum indicators remain cautious. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are trending higher but still sit below neutral readings, pointing to a mild easing in the prevailing bearish pressure.
What Does Falling XRP Futures Open Interest Tell Us About Retail Traders?
Ripple’s XRP extended its slide on Wednesday, trading at $2.17 at the time of writing.
The token, widely used for cross-border settlements, failed to break above $2.30 on Monday, signalling persistent bearish sentiment across the broader crypto market despite continued inflows into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
XRP ETF inflows extend as institutional demand steadies
Demand for US-listed XRP ETFs has strengthened since their launch in mid-November. Four products now operate in the US market: Canary Capital’s XRPC, Bitwise’s XRP, Grayscale’s GXRP and Franklin Templeton’s XRPZ.
On Tuesday, combined XRP ETF inflows reached roughly $35 million, lifting cumulative volume to $622 million and net assets to $645 million.
ETF flows remain a key gauge of investor sentiment; inflows point to a supportive market stance, while outflows typically signal caution.
Retail participation has been far weaker. Futures Open Interest (OI) has struggled to stay above $4 billion since November 11.
CoinGlass data shows OI averaged $3.96 billion on Wednesday, down from $4 billion the previous day. OI measures the notional value of outstanding futures positions.
XRP futures OI hit an all-time high of $10.94 billion on July 22, shortly before XRP set its record price of $3.66. That peak underscored elevated risk appetite in derivatives markets and supported a broader risk-on tone.
Since then, a steady drop in OI has aligned with a decline in spot prices, which fell to $1.82 on Friday. If retail demand remains muted, sustaining any recovery will be difficult, keeping XRP under pressure.
XRP also remains capped below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2.37, reflecting a persistent downward slope. A descending trend line from the $3.66 record high continues to limit rebounds on the daily chart, with resistance near $2.68.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive and is expanding, indicating the MACD line has crossed above the signal line and may support a short- to medium-term bullish tone.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 signals a neutral-to-soft reading, keeping upside attempts restrained. The broader structure remains heavy with price still below the 200-day EMA at $2.51 and the 100-day EMA at $2.52.
Momentum also sits under the zero line and appears flat, suggesting fading bearish pressure rather than a decisive trend shift. Any attempted rebound would face supply at the 50-day EMA, while a daily close above that level would signal the start of a recovery phase.
