Bitcoin Sinks Under Key Levels - Could Renewed ETH ETF Buying Change the Trend?

Bitcoin Sinks Under Key Levels – Could Renewed ETH ETF Buying Change the Trend?

Bitcoin (BTC) stayed under pressure on Friday, trading below $101,000 after sliding more than 8% since the start of the week.

The decline comes as long-term holders continue reducing exposure, adding steady sell pressure on the market. Even so, seasonality offers a small bright spot. Data shows November has often been Bitcoin’s strongest month, with an average return of about 42%.

Why Has Bitcoin Dropped To Its Weakest Level Since June?

The week began with a sharp move lower. BTC slipped to $98,944 on Tuesday, its weakest level since June 23.

Recent data suggests selling from early-cycle investors is driving much of the decline. Over the past month, the supply of coins last active within 180 days has grown by roughly 319,626 BTC.

That increase points to stronger distribution from long-standing holders who are now taking profits or exiting positions on a centralized exchange.

The coins most visibly on the move belong to the 180- to 365-day age band, suggesting steady profit-taking and wider distribution since mid-July.

Some of this revived supply may reflect internal wallet reshuffling, but a notable portion points to real selling.

A QCP Capital analyst said Monday that the idea of older holders driving recent sideways behavior makes sense. The latest pullbacks came without major macro headlines, even as equities and other risk assets moved higher on supportive policy signals.

“BTC is still stuck in a multi-month range that looks similar to its setup before breaking out in 2024. Traders are now asking if the cycle is reaching its final leg.

It’s too soon to call a new crypto winter. For now, long-term holders are locking in gains while institutional flows and broader adoption keep the market steady,” the analyst noted.

Why Is MicroStrategy Accumulating Bitcoin During Market Weakness?

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Demand from large investors has softened. Data from SoSoValue shows spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $661.22 million in outflows as of Thursday, extending a second week of withdrawals. Tuesday’s $577.74 million exit was the biggest single-day pullback since early August.

If this trend continues, it could weigh further on prices and hint at fading conviction among major players.

Still, some institutions remain active. Michael Saylor said on X Monday that his firm bought another 397 BTC through a decentralized exchange, raising its total holdings to 641,205 BTC.

The purchase came despite cooling ETF demand, showing the company is sticking to its long-term Bitcoin view even as near-term conditions soften.

In the broader macro picture, the longest US government shutdown on record reached its 38th day on Friday, raising fresh concern about the economy as lawmakers remain deadlocked. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned that the prolonged halt could shave 1%–2% off U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter.

The warning adds pressure on Congress to reach a compromise regarding regulations for smart contracts. Still, efforts to move forward have stalled. Democrats say they plan to block Republican attempts to force a vote after the Senate failed 14 times to advance a funding bill.

Meanwhile, signs of easing trade tension between the United States and China brought a brief sense of relief to the decentralized exchange ecosystem. China’s Finance Ministry said Wednesday it will lift some tariffs on U.S. farm goods starting November 10.

It will suspend roughly a quarter of the duties on selected products for a year and keep a 10% rate on others. After meeting a U.S. agricultural delegation, China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, urged Washington to help create conditions for stronger cooperation in the decentralized exchange market.

The update followed a separate move from US President Donald Trump on Tuesday. He said tariffs tied to fentanyl-related imports from China would be reduced from 20% to 10%, while some related duties would remain frozen.

The new measures, also expected to begin on November 10, stem from commitments made during an October meeting in South Korea meant to cool tensions between the two countries.

Even so, markets showed little reaction. Traders stayed cautious as the overall economic outlook remains uncertain.

Why Did Bitcoin Fall Below $100K for the First Time Since June?

A weekly update from CryptoQuant on Wednesday said Bitcoin’s core signals look weak, with the price slipping under $100,000 for the first time in several months.

The report noted that BTC is now sitting near key support, and a clear drop below this area could trigger a wider pullback across the market.

Data shared in the update shows Bitcoin has fallen below $100,000 for the first time since June 23 and is trading under its 365-day moving average (MA) at $102,000. This level is considered both a technical and psychological floor.

The 365-day MA has been the final support marker throughout the current bull run and was among the last indicators to reverse during the start of the 2021–22 downturn. Analysts say Bitcoin needs to reclaim this level soon, or risk a sharper correction.

So far in this cycle, the $100,000 lower band has acted as a key support line. Traders often choose to sell and book losses near this zone, according to the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price Bands metric.

Still, analysts caution that if selling grows stronger, the next major support may shift toward the Traders’ minimum price band, now near $72,000.

CoinGlass data shows Bitcoin dropped 3.69% in October, falling short of hopes for the usual “Uptober” bounce. Even so, November has historically been Bitcoin’s best month, with average gains of 41.92%.

Analysts also note that the fourth quarter is normally the strongest period of the year, averaging 78.03% in returns. This trend, they say, could help BTC try for fresh highs before the year ends, particularly in the context of decentralized finance (DeFi).

Weekly charts show Bitcoin has slipped more than 20% from its record high of $126,199 over the past five weeks. This week, the price touched a low of $98,944 and once again tested the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $100,896.

That level has acted as a key floor in past cycles. If it fails, traders say the market could drift toward the 100-week EMA near $85,213, impacting the liquidity on centralized exchanges.

Momentum indicators point to further weakness. The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 44 below the neutral 50 line, hinting at stronger bearish sentiment.

The MACD also remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover in place. Red histogram bars below zero suggest the trend still leans lower in terms of liquidity.

On the daily chart, Bitcoin met resistance at its old broken trendline on Monday. The market then slid 8.18% into Tuesday, pulling the price back toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $100,353.

The range is drawn from the April swing low of $74,508 to the record high at $126,199. BTC bounced 2.35% on Wednesday after holding that support, though most of those gains faded the next day. As of Friday, spot is near $102,200.

If the 50% retracement level at $100,353 continues to hold, some analysts expect the market could attempt another move toward resistance around $106,435.

On the momentum side, the daily RSI is near 34 just above oversold, which suggests selling pressure might be slowing and could allow for a short-term recovery.

Ethereum Price Prediction: Are ETH ETFs Showing Renewed Institutional Interest?

Ethereum (ETH) slid sharply this week, dropping more than 12% and briefly touching $3,245 before settling back near $3,300 over the past day.

The pullback landed just as US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) moved back into positive territory.

On Nov. 6, 2025 (ET), the funds posted a net $12.5 million inflow into decentralized exchanges, ending six straight days of withdrawals.

BlackRock’s ETHA drew the most demand, followed by Fidelity’s FETH. Grayscale’s ETHE, however, continued to lose assets. Total ETH ETF holdings now stand at about $21.75 billion, representing roughly 5.45% of the asset’s current market value. That level suggests large investors have not stepped away despite the recent correction.

Blockchain data points to uneven activity among major wallets. The group known as the “7 Siblings” added 1,601 ETH worth about $5.25 million during the latest dip through a decentralized exchange.

The same cluster has bought 45,800 ETH since Oct. 11, worth around $163 million, at an estimated average entry near $3,561.

With prices still trading below that mark, the wallets now sit on an unrealized loss of roughly $9.48 million. At the same time, selling pressure has grown. Lookonchain noted That three newly activated wallets pulled 4,920 ETH from Tornado Cash before selling around $3,302 on a centralized exchange.

In a separate move, Richard Heart, founder of HEX and PulseChain, had built a position of 162,937 ETH (about $619 million) earlier this year at an average cost near $3,800.

All of those tokens were sent to Tornado Cash two days ago. Another wallet linked to SharpLink Gaming also redeemed and moved over 4,364 ETH to OKX.

Can ETH/BTC Break Above the 0.036–0.038 BTC Resistance?

Ethereum is beginning to show signs of stability against Bitcoin after slipping into a key weekly support zone, according to an update shared by market analyst Michaël van de Poppe.

The ETH/BTC pair briefly dipped into what he described as an “ideal zone for buys” on a decentralized exchange before rebounding, suggesting that downside pressure may be easing.

The weekly chart shows that ETH/BTC has been trending lower since late 2023, forming a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, impacting liquidity in the market.

A sharp relief rally mid-2025 offered a temporary reprieve, lifting the pair by roughly 144% from cycle lows on decentralized exchanges. That advance stalled around 0.045 BTC, triggering renewed selling.

Since then, the pair has retreated to the 0.032–0.035 BTC range, an earlier support band. The latest weekly candle shows a wick rejection from this area, indicating renewed demand and suggesting buyers may be defending the zone.

Despite the recent bounce, the broader structure remains bearish. ETH/BTC continues to trade below its weekly moving average, signaling that Bitcoin still holds the advantage.

A decisive move above the 0.036-0.038 BTC resistance cluster would be a key indication that momentum is shifting back in Ethereum’s favor.

Volume patterns show heavier activity during Q4’s sell-offs, while more recent bars appear balanced, pointing to moderating pressure. Meanwhile, the RSI has begun lifting from oversold levels, though it remains below the neutral line, reflecting a slow but developing attempt at recovery.

Support has been holding near 0.0323 BTC and 0.0266 BTC. These areas mark the main floors on the chart. If price breaks under them, the pair could slide toward 0.0199 BTC, which is the lowest marked support.

On the upside, traders are watching the mid-range level around 0.038 BTC. If buyers manage to push through it, the next target sits near 0.045 BTC.

Is Ethereum Forming a Base After Testing Higher-Timeframe Support?

Van de Poppe said Ethereum briefly tested a higher-timeframe support area and bounced. He described this zone as a place where adding exposure makes sense.

The longer view is still weighed down by earlier weakness, but the reaction at support and a slight improvement in momentum give traders a reason to pay attention.

If the pair stays above this region over the coming weeks, it could build a base for a broader recovery. But if it slips again, it would suggest Bitcoin may keep leading into 2026.

Ethereum also softened against the US dollar. The ETH/USDT pair moved toward $3,200 on the 4-hour chart, extending a pullback that has lasted about a month.

Sellers are still in control after price failed to move back above short-term averages.

Structure has broken down. ETH now sits well below the 50- and 100-period EMAs, near $3,575 and $3,732. These levels acted as support earlier this year. Now they are pushing against the price.

Both moving averages are sloping lower, showing momentum has shifted to the downside.

Ethereum continues to face pressure, with the chart showing a steady pattern of lower highs and lower lows stretching back to late September.

The latest drop came after the price was pushed back from the $4,300–$4,500 area, a zone that stopped several attempts to move higher in October. The move also brought stronger swings, as ETH slipped below $3,500 on Uniswap and fell toward levels last seen in early summer.

Even with the sell-off, ETH is trying to settle near $3,200. This area served as support during the late spring rally and may attract short-term buyers again. If it fails to hold, the next likely support sits in the $3,000–$2,900 range.